Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail are expected to develop across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast and southern Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday. ...Eastern Gulf Coast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard... West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast on Tuesday as a cold front advances southeastward across the region. Moisture advection ahead of the front should result in a gradual increase in surface dewpoints during the day across the eastern Gulf Coast area. Surface dewpoints are forecast to range from the lower 70s F across much of Florida to the mid to upper 60s F across far southeast Alabama, south-central Georgia and southern South Carolina. In spite of this, surface heating may be minimized ahead of the front due to warm advection related convective development during the morning. NAM and GFS Forecast soundings across northern Florida generally peak SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg by mid afternoon. This combined with a strong wind field (0-6 km shear of 50-60 kt) will make conditions supportive of marginally severe storms. If enough instability develops, then at least an isolated severe threat would be possible. The stronger cells could have wind damage and hail as the primary threats. At this time, there is some uncertainty as to the magnitude of instability and how far north the instability will be during the afternoon. If later model runs show less convection in the morning and more instability in the afternoon, then an upgrade will be possible.