Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and hail are possible across parts of the Atlantic Coastal Plains into the Middle Atlantic region on Monday. ...Synopsis... The shortwave trough currently situated over the Southern Plains will deamplify as it continues northeast through the central Appalachians and Middle Atlantic region Monday. An occluded surface low will consolidate over the Great Lakes region in association with a separate, northern-stream shortwave trough. By 12Z Monday a cold front will extend southward from the low through the southern Appalachians into the northwestern Gulf. This front will advance east, moving off the Atlantic seaboard by early evening. A warm front will initially extend from the western Atlantic into the central Appalachians and will lift northward, reaching southern portions of the Northeast States during the afternoon. ...Southeast coastal region through the Carolinas... A pre-frontal, broken line of storms will be ongoing along warm conveyor belt from the central Appalachians southward through the central Carolinas, southeast GA and into the northeastern Gulf. These storms will be embedded within an environment characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along with 50+ kt effective bulk shear and large 0-1 km hodographs. The greater instability will be in place from the Carolinas through southeast GA supported by near 70 F dewpoints in the near-surface layer. This environment will promote an ongoing risk of embedded supercells and bowing segments capable of damaging wind and tornadoes. Though widespread low clouds will likely reside in warm sector, at least modest boundary layer destabilization is expected as temperatures gradually warm through the 70s. The severe threat will persist as storms advance eastward through the morning before moving offshore during the early afternoon. ...Middle Atlantic Region... Instability will be more limited with northward extent in this region. Broken squall line with an ongoing severe threat for damaging wind and tornadoes will extend across western VA. Despite widespread clouds, destabilization of the surface should occur as dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F advect northward with MLCAPE increasing to 600-1200 J/kg. Wind profiles with large 0-1 km hodographs and very strong deep shear will support embedded bowing segments and some supercell structures. Farther north into PA, a large area of rain north of the warm front will initially limit severe potential. However, at least weak destabiliztion is expected in warm sector as this boundary lifts northward with up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE possible during the early afternoon. Additional severe storms are expected to develop along the cold front and in association with the northeast-ejecting shortwave trough. Primary threats will be damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes. ..Dial.. 04/12/2020