Mesoscale Discussion 0361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020
Areas affected...western/central Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 122144Z - 122345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Convection across far eastern Oklahoma may pose an
isolated hail/wind risk while migrating eastward into the discussion
area. A WW issuance is being considered.
DISCUSSION...A broken band of convection is migrating eastward in
areas in/north of WW 108. These storms are in an environment
characterized by modest low-level shear, but steep midlevel lapse
rates and lift associated with an approaching shortwave trough just
west of the storms. Abundant deep shear is also present owing to
fast flow aloft. The expectation is that mainly outflow-dominant
storms capable of wind and hail will migrate eastward into the
discussion area, with instability being maintained mainly via
cooling aloft associated with the approaching trough.
This scenario is being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance.
..Cook/Hart.. 04/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 36439465 36659384 36489301 36129213 35549161 34579157
33749168 33139205 33019298 33339370 34269432 35239459
35779475 36439465
